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Work Package 1: Climate projections

Work Package 1 consists of  five sub tasks related to the collection and generation of climate projections for the study region.



1. Collection and analysis of projected precipitation extremes from existing databases of output from regional climate models, e.g. the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES archives. An analysis of the model variability of relevant indices will be performed.  

2. Collection and analysis of projected precipitation extremes from new regional climate model simulations being prepared as part of the CORDEX project.  

3. Regional climate model simulations in high resolution. A comparison with observational results will be performed in order to estimate quantitatively how the skill in describing precipitation extremes is dependent on the model resolution.  

4. Hydrodynamic and wave model simulations for an area covering the inner Danish waters, North Sea and Baltic Sea forced by meteorological fields from several climate models. Extraction and analysis of projected extreme water levels, currents and waves.  

5. Development and testing of models of extreme climate statistics. Investigation of the change in climate variability in a changing climate, considering both climate model simulations and high temporal resolution proxies (ice-core records).  


Projected increase in 100-year return period surge height (excluding sea level rise) in 2100